Table 1

Characteristics of prospective cohort studies included in meta-analysis on associations between consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice and incidence of type 2 diabetes

Beverage consumption†Incident type 2 diabetes‡
Cohort, country*Baseline yearsMedian follow-up (years)NoAge range or mean age (years)Men (%)Mean BMIMethod of assessmentTypesMethod of ascertainmentNo of cases (rate/1000)‡
FMCHES, Finland531966–7213.7430440–6953.126.5Diet historySSBRecords175 (3.0)
NHS I, USA41 51198421.174 51340–69023.6FFQ†SSB, ASB, FJSelf report7300 (4.6)‡
KIHD, Finland541984–8918.9248142–6010026.84 day diet recordSSB§Records, biomarkers506 (10.8)
CARDIA, USA55 561985–8618.8216018–3046.524.5Diet history†SSB, ASB, FJSelf report, records, biomarkers174 (4.3)‡
HPFS, USA41 49 50198619.340 29040–7510025.5FFQ†SSB, ASB, FJSelf report3229 (4.2)‡
Iowa WHS, USA62198610.731 48955–69027.0FFQSSB, FJSelf report999 (3.0)‡
ARIC men, USA641987–897.5541445–6410027.2FFQSSB‡Self report, biomarkers718 (17.7)
ARIC women, USA641987–897.7679045–64027.2FFQSSB‡Self report, biomarkers719 (13.8)
JPHC men, Japan5219909.812 13740–5910023.5FFQ†SSB, FJSelf report397 (3.3)‡
JPHC women, Japan5219909.915 44840–59023.5FFQ†SSB, FJSelf report279 (1.8)‡
FOS, USA65199112.1273654.245.526.7FFQ†SSB, ASB, FJRecords, self report, biomarkers303 (9.1)
NHS II, USA41 60 61199118.490 42324–44024.4FFQ†SSB, ASB, FJSelf report5121 (3.1)‡
EPIC-InterAct, eight European countries111991–9811.727 05852.437.826.0FFQSSB, ASB, FJRecords, biomarkers‡11 684 (2.9)
E3N, France40199312.448 98552.8022.8Diet historySSB, ASB, FJRecords1054 (1.7)
SCHS, Singapore571993–985.743 58045–7442.923.0FFQSSB, FJSelf report, records, biomarkers2250 (9.0)‡
Black WHS, USA5819957.743 96021–69027.6FFQSSB, ASB, FJSelf report2550 (7.5)‡
HIPOP-OHP, Japan6319993.4612119–6978.922.6FFQSSB, FJSelf report, records, biomarkers212 (10.2)
MESA, USA392000–025.8501145–8447.427.9FFQSSB, ASBSelf report, records, biomarkers413 (14.3)
Occupational cohort, Japan5920035.5203735–5510023.3FFQSSB, ASB, FJRecords, biomarkers170 (15.1)
  • ASB=artificially sweetened beverages; ARIC=Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study; CARDIA=Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study; EPIC=European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study; FFQ=food frequency questionnaires; FJ=fruit juice; FMCHES=Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Examination Survey; FOS=Framingham Offspring Study; HIPOP-OHP=High-risk and Population Strategy for Occupational Health Promotion Study; HPFS=Health Professional Follow-up Study; JPHC=Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study; KIHD=Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study; MESA=Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; NHS=Nurses’ Health Study; SCHS=Singapore Chinese Health Study; SSB=sugar sweetened beverages; WHS=Women's Health Study.

  • *Ordered in years of baseline assessments. Numbers represent citations. ARIC and JPHS reported results stratified by sex. In meta-analysis, sex stratified estimates were aggregated in advance.

  • †Diets were assessed repeatedly during follow-up and incorporated in longitudinal analysis. JPHC measured repeatedly but used baseline FFQ only.

  • ‡Biomarkers included any of fasting glucose, two hour glucose by oral glucose tolerance test, and glycated haemoglobin. Records included medical records or other records from registry, not including self reported information. Studies ascertaining cases of type 2 diabetes by self report involved uncertainty in ascertainment, and thus numbers of cases were revised by a positive predictive value (proportion of verified cases among self reported cases) (see supplementary information and table S3). The EPIC-InterAct study adopted different methods across participating cohorts, in which no cohort used self reported diagnosis only.

  • §In ARIC and FOS analyses, sugar sweetened and artificially sweetened beverages were combined. In KIHD, the article described fruit juices, but treated them as sugar sweetened beverages, because more than 90% of fruit juice consumed in Finland in 1980s and 1990s was sweetened with sugars (confirmed by the authors).

  • ¶Considered as having potential bias (see supplementary information and table S2). In each of CARDIA and JPHC, distinct analytic approaches were undertaken in different publications by the same authors. Iowa WHS reported results only in a conference abstract. E3N presented prospective associations adjusted for crude categorical variables for body mass index, which could cause substantial residual confounding. SCHS presented results without classification between 100% fruit juice and sugar sweetened fruit juice and had a likelihood of attrition bias by loss of follow-up by deaths (15%). HIPOP-OHP lost 31% of participants during follow-up, which could cause bias due to differential misclassification.