The impact of differential risk: number of athletes with detectable cardiac disorders needed to prevent one death*
| Population | Annual risk of SCD | Number of athletes screened Hypothetical example: | Number of detectable conditions at potential risk of SCD† | Expected number of SCD events based on annual risk | Number of SCD events from detectable conditions‡ | Number of athletes with detectable conditions needed to prevent one death in first year§ | Number needed to screen to prevent one death in first year | Number of athletes with detectable conditions needed to prevent one death over 4-year career¶ | Number needed to screen to prevent one death over 4-year career |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High school athletes | 1 in 80 000 | 240 000 | 720 | 3 | 2 | 360 | 120 000 | 90 | 30 000 |
| College athletes | 1 in 50 000 | 150 000 | 450 | 3 | 2 | 225 | 75 000 | 56 | 19 000 |
| Male, African-American college athlete | 1 in 16 000 | 48 000 | 144 | 3 | 2 | 72 | 24 000 | 18 | 6000 |
| Male, Division I college basketball athlete | 1 in 5000 | 15 000 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 7500 | 6 | 1900 |
*Assumptions based on best available information.
†Prevalence of detectable cardiac conditions using ECG=0.3%.
‡ECG detectable conditions represent 60% of all causes of SCD.
§Assumes that disease-specific management effectively mitigates risk of SCD.
¶Four-year estimate is an extrapolation and assumes the relative risk of SCD is the same each year.
SCD, sudden cardiac death.