Wmax/kg and estimated VO2max at conscription and incidence of cancer (n=1 012 295)
| Cancer site | No of cases | Middle tertile† | Highest tertile† | Analysis of continuous Wmax/kg‡ | Analysis of continuous VO2max § | Change per MET | ||
| HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | ||
| Any cancer site | 53 841 | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.01) | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.01) | 0.39 | 0.99 (0.98 to 1.01) | 0.39 | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.00) | 1.00 (0.99 to 1.00) |
| Malignant skin | 19 741 | 1.08 (1.04 to 1.12) | 1.19 (1.14 to 1.23) | <0.001 | 1.14 (1.12 to 1.17) | <0.001 | 1.01 (1.01 to 1.01) | 1.05 (1.04 to 1.05) |
| Bronchi and lung | 1207 | 0.89 (0.78 to 1.02) | 0.62 (0.53 to 0.72) | <0.001 | 0.64 (0.57 to 0.71) | <0.001 | 0.96 (0.95 to 0.97) | 0.86 (0.83 to 0.89) |
| Head and neck | 2305 | 0.90 (0.81 to 0.99) | 0.78 (0.70 to 0.86) | <0.001 | 0.85 (0.79 to 0.92) | <0.001 | 0.99 (0.98 to 0.99) | 0.95 (0.93 to 0.97) |
| CNS | 1822 | 0.97 (0.86 to 1.08) | 0.92 (0.82 to 1.04) | 0.03 | 0.92 (0.85 to 0.99) | 0.03 | 0.99 (0.98 to 1.00) | 0.97 (0.95 to 1.00) |
| Thyroid gland | 610 | 0.91 (0.75 to 1.11) | 0.78 (0.63 to 0.96) | 0.14 | 0.90 (0.79 to 1.03) | 0.14 | 0.99 (0.98 to 1.00) | 0.97 (0.93 to 1.01) |
| Gastrointestinal cancers | ||||||||
| Oesophagus | 537 | 0.68 (0.55 to 0.85) | 0.60 (0.48 to 0.75) | <0.001 | 0.64 (0.54 to 0.76) | <0.001 | 0.96 (0.94 to 0.97) | 0.87 (0.82 to 0.91) |
| Stomach | 726 | 0.79 (0.66 to 0.95) | 0.71 (0.59 to 0.87) | <0.001 | 0.71 (0.62 to 0.81) | <0.001 | 0.97 (0.96 to 0.98) | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.93) |
| Pancreas | 1022 | 0.93 (0.80 to 1.08) | 0.71 (0.61 to 0.84) | <0.001 | 0.76 (0.67 to 0.85) | <0.001 | 0.97 (0.96 to 0.99) | 0.91 (0.88 to 0.95) |
| Liver, bile ducts and gallbladder | 917 | 0.85 (0.72 to 0.99) | 0.64 (0.54 to 0.76) | <0.001 | 0.69 (0.61 to 0.78) | <0.001 | 0.97 (0.95 to 0.98) | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.92) |
| Colon | 2663 | 0.88 (0.80 to 0.97) | 0.79 (0.71 to 0.87) | <0.001 | 0.85 (0.80 to 0.92) | <0.001 | 0.99 (0.98 to 0.99) | 0.95 (0.93 to 0.97) |
| Rectum | 1922 | 0.99 (0.88 to 1.10) | 0.85 (0.76 to 0.96) | 0.001 | 0.86 (0.80 to 0.94) | 0.001 | 0.99 (0.98 to 0.99) | 0.95 (0.93 to 0.98) |
| Urological cancers | ||||||||
| Prostate | 10 504 | 1.06 (1.01 to 1.12) | 1.05 (0.99 to 1.10) | 0.008 | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.09) | 0.008 | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.01) | 1.02 (1.00 to 1.03) |
| Kidney | 1452 | 0.81 (0.71 to 0.92) | 0.63 (0.55 to 0.72) | <0.001 | 0.73 (0.67 to 0.81) | <0.001 | 0.97 (0.96 to 0.98) | 0.90 (0.87 to 0.93) |
| Bladder | 1748 | 1.04 (0.92 to 1.16) | 0.90 (0.79 to 1.01) | 0.003 | 0.88 (0.80 to 0.96) | 0.003 | 0.99 (0.98 to 1.00) | 0.96 (0.93 to 0.99) |
| Haematological cancers | ||||||||
| Leukaemia | 1721 | 0.86 (0.76 to 0.97) | 0.95 (0.84 to 1.07) | 0.20 | 0.95 (0.87 to 1.03) | 0.20 | 0.99 (0.99 to 1.00) | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.01) |
| Myeloma | 749 | 0.96 (0.80 to 1.15) | 0.99 (0.83 to 1.20) | 0.89 | 0.99 (0.87 to 1.13) | 0.89 | 1.00 (0.99 to 1.01) | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.04) |
| Hodgkin’s lymphoma | 782 | 1.05 (0.88 to 1.25) | 0.94 (0.78 to 1.14) | 0.49 | 0.96 (0.85 to 1.08) | 0.49 | 1.00 (1.01 to 1.06) | 0.99 (0.95 to 1.02) |
| Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma | 2247 | 0.90 (0.81 to 1.00) | 0.93 (0.83 to 1.03) | 0.33 | 0.97 (0.90 to 1.04) | 0.33 | 1.00 (0.99 to 1.00) | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.01) |
Adjusted for year, site, age, body mass index and parental education at conscription.
Reference=lowest tertile.
*Estimated from Wmax using the formula by Kokkinos et al.12
†Tertiles of Wmax/kg and estimated VO2max, stratified by conscription year (same results for both variables).
‡Linear trends and estimate per W/kg for continuous Wmax/kg.
§Linear trends and estimate per mL O2*kg–1*min–1 for continuous VO2max.
CNS, central nervous system; MET, Metabolic equivalent of task (3.5 mL O2*kg–1*min–1).