Association between accelerometer-measured total and intensity-specific physical activity and incident T2D (n=59 325)
| Events/number of participants | Model 1 HR (95% CI) | Model 2 HR (95% CI) | Model 3 HR (95% CI) | Model 4 HR (95% CI) | Model 5 HR (95% CI) | |
| The total volume of physical activity (mg) | ||||||
| P0–P10 (≤26.1) | 205/5728 | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) |
| P10–P50 (26.2–38.0) | 409/23 321 | 0.54 (0.46 to 0.64) | 0.59 (0.50 to 0.70) | 0.71 (0.60 to 0.84) | 0.68 (0.57 to 0.80) | – |
| P50–P90 (38.1–54.3) | 236/23 493 | 0.33 (0.28 to 0.41) | 0.37 (0.31 to 0.45) | 0.51 (0.42 to 0.62) | 0.49 (0.40 to 0.60) | – |
| P90–P100 (>54.3) | 34/5899 | 0.20 (0.14 to 0.29) | 0.22 (0.15 to 0.32) | 0.35 (0.24 to 0.50) | 0.32 (0.22 to 0.47) | – |
| MVPA (min/day) | ||||||
| P0–P10 (≤5.2) | 193/5758 | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) |
| P10–P50 (5.3–25.9) | 418/23 316 | 0.50 (0.42 to 0.59) | 0.54 (0.45 to 0.64) | 0.63 (0.53 to 0.75) | 0.62 (0.52 to 0.74) | 0.63 (0.53 to 0.75) |
| P50–P90 (26.0–68.4) | 237/23 470 | 0.27 (0.22 to 0.32) | 0.31 (0.25 to 0.37) | 0.41 (0.33 to 0.50) | 0.40 (0.33 to 0.49) | 0.41 (0.34 to 0.51) |
| P90–P100 (>68.4) | 36/5897 | 0.15 (0.10 to 0.21) | 0.17 (0.12 to 0.25) | 0.26 (0.18 to 0.38) | 0.25 (0.18 to 0.37) | 0.26 (0.18 to 0.38) |
| LPA (min/day) | ||||||
| P0–P10 (≤202) | 135/5798 | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) | 1.00 (ref.) |
| P10–P50 (202.1–314) | 379/23 368 | 0.73 (0.60 to 0.89) | 0.75 (0.62 to 0.92) | 0.84 (0.69 to 1.02) | 0.81 (0.66 to 0.98) | 0.89 (0.73 to 1.09) |
| P50–P90 (314.1–444) | 315/23 398 | 0.64 (0.52 to 0.78) | 0.64 (0.52 to 0.79) | 0.79 (0.64 to 0.97) | 0.76 (0.62 to 0.93) | 0.87 (0.70 to 1.07) |
| P90–P100 (>444) | 55/5877 | 0.48 (0.35 to 0.66) | 0.45 (0.33 to 0.62) | 0.58 (0.42 to 0.80) | 0.57 (0.41 to 0.78) | 0.64 (0.47 to 0.89) |
The analyses were all based on multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Bold face values indicate p<0.05.
Model 1: adjusted for age as the underlying timescale, adjusted for gender, total wear time and seasonality.
Model 2: adjusted for variables in Model 1+ ethnicity, educational attainment, household income, Townsend deprivation index, employment status and assessment centres.
Model 3: adjusted for variables in Model 2+ smoking status, alcohol consumption, healthy diet score, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and depression.
Model 4: adjusted for variables in Model 3+ PRS, genotyping array, and the first 10 principal components of ancestry.
Model 5: adjusted for variables in Model 4+ LPA or MVPA (MVPA and LPA were mutually adjusted, but not for the total volume of physical activity).
LPA, light-intensity physical activity; mg, milligravity; MVPA, moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity; P, percentiles; PRS, polygenic risk score; T2D, type 2 diabetes.