Hazard ratios (HR) for developing diabetes, according to baseline physical activity and cardiorespiratory fi tness category
| Cases | Man-years | Rate* | Model 1 HR (95% CI)† | Model 2 HR (95% CI)‡ | Model 3 HR (95% CI)§ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physical activity | ||||||
| Sedentary | 300 | 152 680 | 20.1 | 1.0 (referent) | 1.0 (referent) | 1.0 (referent) |
| Walker/jogger/runner | 195 | 198 569 | 9.6 | 0.44 (0.37 to 0.53) | 0.60 (0.48 to 0.74) | 0.76 (0.60 to 0.96) |
| Sport/fitness | 94 | 73 178 | 12.4 | 0.60 (0.47 to 0.76) | 0.72 (0.55 to 0.94) | 0.81 (0.62 to 1.07) |
| Cardiorespiratory fitness | ||||||
| Low | 214 | 69 387 | 31.9 | 1.0 (referent) | 1.0 (referent) | 1.0 (referent) |
| Moderate | 250 | 170 553 | 14.5 | 0.42 (0.35 to 0.51) | 0.62 (0.49 to 0.78) | 0.65 (0.51 to 0.82) |
| High | 125 | 184 401 | 6.5 | 0.18 (0.14 to 0.23) | 0.37 (0.28 to 0.50) | 0.43 (0.31 to 0.60) |
| p Value for linear trend | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | ||
↵* Rate per 10 000 man-years adjusted for age and examination year.
↵† Model 1: adjusted for baseline age, examination year and survey response pattern.
↵† Model 2: adjusted for all variables in Model 1 plus body mass index (kg/m2), smoking status (never, former and current), alcohol intake (drinks per week), fasting glucose (mg/dl), hypercholesterolaemia (yes or no), hypertension (yes or not), family history of diabetes (present or not) and family history of cardiovascular disease (present or not).
↵§ Model 3: adjusted for all variables in Model 2 plus physical activity or cardiorespiratory fitness.