Parameters used to model the implications of screening young athletes in the UK, derived from the Italian programme
| Parameter (extracted and derived) | No./percentage (95% CI) |
|---|---|
| Proportion of 12–35-yr-olds participating in competitive athletics | 8.1% |
| Uptake of screening | 100% |
| Sensitivity | 88.7% (86.6% to 90.5%) |
| Specificity | 92.7% (92.4% to 92.9%) |
| Prevalence of CVDs in athletes (12–35 yr) | 2.3% (2.2% to 2.5%) |
| Positive predictive value* | 22.5% (21.2% to 23.8%) |
| Negative predictive value* | 99.7% (99.6% to 99.8%) |
| NNS (postscreening period) | 38151 (20 534 to 267 380) |
| Estimated incidence of SCD in athletes (assuming non-participation in sport)† | 1.02 per 100 000 |
| Relative risk of SCD in male to female non-athletes‡ | 2.6 |
↵* At an assumed prevalence rate of 2.34%, as calculated from the Italian data.
↵† Weighted for differences in the incidence of SCD and proportion of male and female non-athletes and assuming rates of SCD in non-athletes are similar to athletes if they were not to train, based on data from an earlier study on the population in Veneto by Corrado et al (2003).1
‡ Relative rate calculated from the rates in male and female non-athletes reported in Corrado et al (2003).1